Reward-to-risk (R) and break-even win rate
R is distance to target ÷ distance to stop. Entry 100, stop 95, target 110 risks 5 to make 10 — 1 : 2. Break-even win rate is 1 ÷ (1 + R), so at R = 2 you break even (before fees) near a 33% win rate.
With scale-out targets
If you close in parts, the overall R is the weighted average of each target's R. Closing 50% at 105 (1R) and 50% at 115 (3R) gives (1 + 3) ÷ 2 = 2R. Banking some early raises the win rate but lowers the average R — look at both.
Expectancy
Add a win rate and the tool shows win% × R − (1 − win%) per trade in R. It must be positive to matter over time. Slippage and fees are not included, so leave a margin.
FAQ
What R is good?
There is no universal answer; it must be read with win rate. A low R needs a high win rate and vice versa.
What if my sizes do not add up to 100%?
They are rescaled to 100%.
Does it work for shorts?
Choose Short, put the stop above entry and targets below.
Does positive expectancy guarantee winning?
No. It is an average and streaks still happen — check with the losing-streak simulator.